Long has Eden-Monaro been something of a “media tart” but its looming, resignation-induced by-election is history unfurling before our eyes - let alone political aspirations.
It's less about a potential return to former “bellwether” status (the tendency to “predict” the government of the day), or if it’ll be the first time in a century the party in power takes the trophy in such a between-elections election. Nor is it because it's only the second time EM's had a by-election since creation in 1901 (the 159th for Australia overall).
While mostly the blokes and the shenanigans around who's vying to be on the ballot paper have made the headlines, the significant elements of this electoral contest turns out to be on the other side of the gender divide. Astoundingly, the men are currently in the minority and far from odds-on favourites (one Liberal Democrat and potentially one Independent). In 2020 then, Eden-Monaro looks set to have its inaugural female Member of Parliament.
After 119 years, Labor has for the first time decided on a woman to hold aloft its banner – an apparently unopposed Kristy McBain, former mayor of Bega.
Just a year ago, Fiona Kotvojs was the first woman to run as a Liberal in the seat's history, getting within 1600-odd votes of the now-retired - from politics at any rate - Mike Kelly. Seemingly not the “automatic choice”, after all the various kerfuffles, Kotvojs has beaten out her male opponent to take on the challenge.
Australia gave women the vote and legislated they be able to run in elections federally from 1902 (South Australia was the first colony/state to do so in 1894, having allowed them to vote at a local level as early as 1861). State elections varied dramatically, the right to vote and stand taking as long as 21 years (VIC the last). Accordingly, it was 1921 before Edith Cowan became the country’s first female parliamentarian, elected to the Legislative Assembly of Western Australia.
Dames Enid Lyons and Dorothy Tangney were the first women as Federal representatives in 1943. It would be more than three decades after that EM would have its first female electoral option.
In 1977, Norma (Lorraine) Helmers gained 8.6% of the vote when she ran for the newly formed Democrats, the “centrist” party founded by Don “keep the bastards honest” Chipp and Australia’s largest minor party until 2004. She’d have another go in 1980, her numbers reduced to 5.1%.
The election after that, Independent Miriam Naughton sallied forth, but could only manage 3.1% (she did outpoll the male Democrats candidate, whose vote fell to 2.7%; the highest vote for any Independent has been Jim Collins in 1990 at a smidge over 10%).
It'd be 1996 for history to be made again locally. In a line-up of eight wanna-be politicos, half of them were female: Independent Robyn Loydell (5.99%), Nora Endean, Democrats (3.59%), Robin Tennant-Woods for the Greens (3.53%), and Irene Brown as part of the Australians Against Further Immigration (1.9%).
At that point, staying true to its “bellwether” nature (from 1972 at any rate), Labor’s Jim Snow lost the seat after five successful elections, to Lib Gary Nairn. The two-party preferred result was 54.76% to 45.24%, the largest swing in 50 years - and since - at more than +9, and John Howard became Prime Minister.
Come 2019, there was another first when the female Liberal candidate (Kotvojs) went up against a female candidate for the National Party, Sophie Wade (the first three-cornered affair among the major parties since 1993). It was though, the second time a woman had stood for the Nats in EM. Twenty-nine years earlier, Gaye White secured a respectable 9.5%.
While Wade only managed 6.95% of the vote – coming in after the Greens at 8.78% (second highest after their 2010 peak of 9.72%) – given what's recently played out with Libs v Nats for Eden-Monaro, the idea it's solely a Labor or Liberal seat has previously been challenged.
When then Country Party candidate Ron Brewer polled 30.1% of the 1974 vote - Liberal Jonathon Bell achieving 19.9% - Brewer almost snatched it from Labor’s Bob Whan in the two-party preferred finish of 49.9% to 50.1%, one of the narrowest of its margins.
Brewer had also been attempting to jump the State-Federal fence. Elected member for Goulburn in 1965 (in a three-cornered contest), he resigned, lost, then won back his previous position in the by-election he caused! He held it until retirement in 1984.
Is there a possibility in 2020 that the Nationals - still deciding on whether they'll contest after all - could have a woman again join the fray?
On two other occasions, 2010 and 2016, three women stood for EM. This election though, has now surpassed the 1996 moment, with five females nominating - thus far.
Karen Porter, an Independent aligned with the currently unregistered “The New Liberals” (and the 2015 Canberra Business Woman of the Year), has publicly declared her intentions. So too, Narelle Storey for the Christian Democrat Party (CDP has had a woman stand for the seat in three of the seven elections since 2001; its overall vote has ranged between 0.75% and 1.87%).
The Greens have selected a woman to run in seven of nine elections since the Party first appeared in the electorate in 1996. Now they mark the eight occasion with the announcement of Cathy Griff, another Bega councillor.
Is there yet even more of a chance for history to be made with the opportunity another Independent woman may yet emerge?*
Never mind that Eden-Monaro was one of only four bellwethers throughout the country, or that it's known for its diversity (from the city to the coast, bush to the beach), geographic size (bigger than a host of nations) and is so marginal it attracts more electioneering promises than it has barrels for pork - surely the display of feminine force is enough to cement its place as one of the most progressive seats in the nation.
*The Division of Canberra had five female candidates in 1998. Preliminary research suggests the record may be the 2009 by-election in Bradfield, when there were seven women in a field of 22.
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